‘More jokers in the weather deck’: Climate change means more uncertainty for farmers

Environment Canada’s David Phillips told farmers and those in attendance at February’s Ontario Fruit and Vegetable Convention to expect warmer, wetter and wilder weather in the coming years. - Environment Canada photo

By Luke Edwards

It’s a stark reminder of just how precarious a farmer’s livelihood can be.

“The difference between prosperity and bankruptcy can sometimes be five millimetres of rain or 0.5 degrees of heat,” said Environment Canada’s David Phillips, as he presented a talk called “Tomorrow’s Forecast: Warmer, Wetter, and Wilder – Are you Ready?” He did so at February’s Ontario Fruit and Vegetable Convention in Niagara Falls.

Phillips said there was a time when farmers thought issues with the weather and climate would in the near future no longer exist for farmers. There was also a time when many people thought climate change wasn’t real. But with the scientific community largely in agreement, and with farmers and citizens alike experiencing first hand more dramatic weather events, Phillips said he doesn’t believe that’s the case anymore.

“The majority of farmers recognize that something seems to be amiss,” he said, adding that while the climate is always changing, human activity in the last few centuries means it’s changing faster and more drastically than ever.

“There are more jokers in the weather deck. I don’t know what’s normal anymore.”

And while short term weather forecasts remain notoriously difficult to nail down with any precision, Phillips warned of three overall trends in the coming years, harkening back to the title of his talk.

“Warmer, wetter, wilder. That’s what the forecast is going to be,” he said.

However, it’s not all doom and gloom, with Phillip calling the future of agriculture in Canada anything but bleak. It just means adapting with the times.

“We’ve got to change faster than the climate is changing,” he said, adding Canada will likely be one of the five super producers of food.

“There’s great reason to be optimistic of the future of agriculture in the province.”

Still, he warned of being prepared.

“There’s going to be winners and there’s going to be losers. Everyone is going to be affected,” he said.

And to be best prepared, farmers and society should support scientific advances and innovations. Farmers may need to rethink their approaches, not relying on the traditional calendar dates to determine what they’re doing.